Friday, January 16, 2009

Anglo Irish Bank Nationalisation

It has been announced that the Irish Government will nationalise its third largest bank, read here. On 2nd October last year I posted the following:

Euro Currency insanity now clear for all!

Follow the logic of the two year Irish guarantee of its bank deposits. In spite of French re-assurances it is not available elsewhere. Therefore looking at the approaching abyss will savers across Euroland not seek the security of that Irish guarantee? Read the latest mess of Gordon Brown, here, who announced a rise to fifty thousand sterling with no commencement date thus causing another crisis. (Note the Telegraph headline actually labels this as a panic! I am keeping that word for the real thing). What will Ireland do with all that cash? They will not obtain realistic market returns with a similar two year guarantee so the chances will get ever greater that the banks will indeed fail, drowned in a sea of un-investable cash, and that the Irish taxpayer will have then to compensate any euro investor, an idea so clearly preposterous that in a normal world it would beggar belief. Yet that is the situation within the EU this very morning. I repeat "an idea so clearly preposterous that in a normal world it would beggar belief." Yet here we are, would an Icelandic Government bank guarantee for its depositors who lent twenty time that nation's GDP be worth a lot? How much is an open-ended Irish Government guarantee worth or more pertinently up to what level of exposure? With Brown's daily billion pound promises of expenditure, how much is a commitment by this British Government worth - or again more pertinently up to what level of commitment? My guess looking at recent pledges and the rapidly cratering tax receipts he has already passed the point where funds can be relied upon - next stop the IMF and/or default!

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