Sunday, July 31, 2011

EMU death throes - Ironies Too joins Twitter for the last rites!

It is now possible to Tweet posts from this blog.

As I prepare my reports and postings on the closing stages of EMU and the Euro as we have known it to date, I will also Tweet extra items, as I come across them, for the benefit of regular readers also using Twitter.


"The worst of all worlds" AE-P in the Telegraph

The EU has brought about the first sovereign default in Western Europe since the Second World War and set a fateful precedent without actually resolving the Greek problem. This is the worst of all worlds.

The entire comment from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph is linked here. It confirms what this blog has been re-iterating for the past ten days are these daunting, but obvious, other quotes:

Europe’s leaders have gone on holiday. The €440bn EFSF is an any case too small. The bond vigilantes broadly agree that the EFSF needs €2 trillion in pre-emptive firepower to forestall a twin crisis in Italy and Spain, though quite how France might pay for this without being drawn into the maelstrom itself is an open question.........

EU ineptitude - or rather, German, Dutch and Finnish unwillingness to face up to the implications of EMU - have raised the risk of a traumatic August crisis in Italy and Spain. EU leaders are bringing about exactly what they pledged to avoid.

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US spending junkies applauded in British Press!

The Observer, this Sunday, excels itself in stupidity. The paper writes:

The 2010 congressional election campaign was dominated by the Tea Party but the populist movement then appeared to fade, seemingly absorbed by the Republican mainstream. Earlier this year, in a test run for the present standoff, Republicans threatened to shut the federal government. Obama backed down and gave the Republicans spending cuts. But this was primarily a Republican campaign, not a Tea Party one.

Let's face it, any individual or group of people, suggesting living within one's means, has to be on the wrong side of completely crazy in La-la-Observer-land:

Normally, raising America's debt ceiling is an arcane and routine matter for Congress, passing through the House of Representatives and Senate barely noticed, as it has about 140 times since the second world war. But that was before the emergence of the Tea Party movement. The Tea Party rose out of anger over the scale of federal spending, and in particular in bailing out the banks and the car industry.

Yet is not the entire Western World, now up to its neck in debt from printed funny money through quantitative easing, artificially facilitated asset bubbles and phony credit intruments? Is this truly the world America's forefathers of 200 years ago set out to create, as suggested in this ludicrous quote the Observer chooses to print?

Martin Frost, a former Democratic congressman from Texas, writing on the Politico website, compared the Tea Party to the Taliban in its drive for ideological purity, lack of respect for tradition and unwillingness to compromise. "We now have a group of US politicians seeking political purity, who seem to have much in common with the Taliban. They are Tea Party members; and because of blind adherence to smaller government, they seem intent on risking destroying what American political leaders have constructed in more than two centuries of hard, often painful work," Frost wrote.

America needs to set an example to the former democracies of the EU by cutting its debt ceiling, on which more may be read from here.

In Britain the Guardian and its Sunday sister, the Observer, which has again proved its dodgy credentials so spectacularly in the full quoted article linked here, have much to answer to for the present desperate state of the country, which even this weekend is not yet fully revealed! Go to it our American Cousins, they urge, rob the near corpse of your country yet again, for one last fix of spending excess, so the rest of the West can follow your clear lead in the feeding of our addiction.

(This post will also appear on Orphans of Liberty in due course). 

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A simple thought for a Sunday

" I sing of calamitous dogs, those who wander, all alone, in the sinuous ravines of immense cities, or to those who say to the abandoned man, with twinkling, intelligent eyes: "Take me with you, and perhaps we shall fashion a kind of happiness out of our two miseries! " Charles Baudelaire


Saturday, July 30, 2011

EU's politicians - the bigger the debt - the worse they behave!

Can Italian Finance Minister, Giulio Tremonti, really believe the excuse he offered the Italian people for paying half the normal rent for a Rome apartment, in cash to a political colleague, Marco Milanese, now under suspicion of corruption. The quote comes from Monsters and Critics, linked here:

'I don't need to steal money ... from the Italian people,' Tremonti said speaking during a state television breakfast show.
'Perhaps I should have been more careful, but if I made mistakes, the only excuse is that I have to manage the third largest debt in the world,' Tremonti told broadcaster RAI, referring to Italy's public debt.

So there you have it, for this summer weekend, neatly summed up on TV from Italy. If you are a Euro Zone Finance Minister, the bigger your national debt, the more excuses you have for dubious behaviour!

Well! That explains a lot, is this same principle at work in the US Congress and Executive, one could be forced to ponder, as events go from comedy to farce onwards towards the brink of a nightmare!


Did an IMF report, panic Spain into an early general election?

The Wall Street Journal briefly summarises the latest IMF findings on Spain, linked here, made public around the time of Zapatero's announcement of the election coming forward by four months.

France's AFP, gave more detail; some of the IMF quotes it gave being as follows:

"Unwinding imbalances accumulated during the long boom and reallocating resources across sectors will take years and will require determined policy action," it said in a report.
"And many of the underlying problems of the Spanish economy, especially weak productivity growth and a dysfunctional labor market, remain to be fully addressed."

...."unemployment remains unacceptably high, inflation is again above the euro area average and sovereign and bank funding costs remain elevated and volatile.

"The recovery is likely to be modest and export-led, with significant downside risks dominating, especially that of further contagion from rising concerns about sovereign risks in the euro area."

Given the above, is it not somewhat surprising that the Spanish Government did not follow the example of Cyprus, set earlier in the week, by having the Cabinet resign en masses and call a prompt general election?

Spain has thus become yet another EMU member to be delivered a lame duck government. Co-incidence?


Muddled thinking from Dublin mirrors the EU's Mess!

In the headlines of the Irish Times this morning, the newspaper trumpets the news that Ireland will exceed the already penal constraints which the EU has imposed on their economy. In its leading article, linked here, on greater economic governance, the real confusion of ideals and objectives is exposed in the concluding two peragraphs:

..... major elements of greater economic integration must be brought together into a coherent design if the euro is to retain credibility. German leaders are now convinced that it is fundamentally in their interest and are willing to open the debate, even if, as appears likely, this results in some form of transfer union. While that would fall well short of what is done in large national federal states, it may validly be compared with them. The obverse is that the economic disciplines built in will certainly reflect German concerns.
Other euro member states, including smaller ones like Ireland, will have to define and defend their interests in this emerging project. It cannot be dominated only by the largest states. All their peoples, too, must be fully involved if it is to be politically legitimate. Otherwise the economic, political and popular logics involved will collide and explode.


Friday, July 29, 2011

Brazil "alarmed" at IMF risks over Greek Bailout 2.0

One report of many confirming my headline above is here. In this same source we learn that the representative for India on the IMF Executive Board, Arvind Vermani, which met informally on the second Greek bailout, read here, is on the record as stating

"I am not convinced [the plan] addresses the basic problem of liquidity versus solvency."

Note particularly this end statement from the first of the two links above:

The board is heading into a three-week recess, so no formal meetings are scheduled.

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Spain's Zapatero cuts and runs

Spain will have a General Election four month's earlier than planned the Spanish Prime Minister announced today. The announcement followed a warning that Moody's could be about to further downgrade the rating of Spanish Bonds, upon which interest rates continue to rise.

One report is linked here.


EU inflation down, economic sentiment down, business confidence down - is it not time to bring down the EU?

The following is from yesterday's EU Midday Express press briefing:
July 2011: Economic sentiment drops in both the EU and the euro area The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined in July but remains above its long-term average. It fell, by 2.2 points respectively, to 102.4 in the EU and to 103.2 in the euro area. In the euro area the fall resulted from a decline in confidence in all sectors, with strong losses in industry and services. In the EU confidence also declined notably in industry, retail trade and among consumers, with marginal falls in services and an improvement in the construction sector.
July 2011: Business Climate Indicator continues to decline in the euro area The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area fell for the fifth month in a row in July 2011. The current level of the indicator remains comparatively high, but the steady fall observed since March indicates that euro-area industry has entered a phase of growth moderation. The drop in the BCI in July reflects primarily weakening production expectations and worsening assessments of production trends observed in recent months. These developments went along with managers being more pessimistic about overall order books and export order books. Appraisal of stocks continued to increase from historic lows.

Looking at the two graphs provided on the links, it appears we are about to fall off a cliff in both instances:

Note this report on Euro Zone countries inflation from RTT:
In economic news, Eurozone annual inflation slowed to 2.5 percent in July, flash estimate published by Eurostat showed. Economists were expecting the annual rate to remain unchanged at 2.7 percent.
Meanwhile, German retail sales grew faster than expected in June, reversing previous month's drop, data from the Federal Statistical Office revealed. Sales grew 6.3 percent month-on-month in June, after a 2.5 percent fall in May. Economists were looking for a 1.7 percent increase.
LOOK also at this from a report one day earlier, from Bloomberg:
Inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly accelerated in July as energy costs increased. The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent in June, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today in an initial estimate.

Can there be any doubt that ECB decisions are now exclusively aimed at the German economy, as suggested by The Guardian, in a report following the latest recent rise in Eurozone interest rates, earlier this month:
The ECB is tightening policy in response to above-target inflation, driven by the strong recovery in the eurozone's largest member, Germany, as well as other northern economies including France. Inflation across the eurozone hit 2.7% in June.

More on this from the FT, linked here.


English Democrats gather sufficient signatures for Mayoral election in Salford.

The following press release has been recieved from the English Democrat Party, now this is truly localism at work, not the EU plan for fines and centralised Brussels regional control of ex-national states with purely decorative parliaments:

Referendum triggered by English Democrats - Press Release

The English Democrats are delighted to announce that amply sufficient signatures have now been collected to force Salford City Council to have a referendum on directly electing their Council Leader (aka “Executive Mayor”).

The English Democrats’ Campaign for Elected Mayors passes its first landmark tomorrow at 10.30 at the Salford City Council when 10,500 signatures on our petition for a referendum on the issue will be handed in to Salford’s Returning Officer.

Stephen Morris, the English Democrats’ North West Area Chairman said:- “I am delighted that here in Salford we are leading the way to a better and more open local democracy for the people of Salford City.  Salford has long needed a leader who will fight for Salford and have the democratic clout to do so.  If Salford voters choose to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum then we will have a democratically elected leader with a mandate to equal the Government’s proposed mayor for Manchester!”

Stephen continued:- “We only needed 8,505 to force a referendum but to ensure that Salford’s Council Labour leadership can’t pull any tricks we collected over 10,500.”

Robin Tilbrook, the English Democrats’ Party Chairman said:-  “Last September we launched our campaign for directly elected council leaders for every local authority in England and I am delighted that the fantastic work of our local volunteer, Geoffey Berg, means that Salford City Council will be the first to achieve the necessary 5% of voters signatures to trigger a referendum under the Local Government Act 2000.”

Robin continued “All the British Establishment Parties nationally have pushed for elected mayors to sort out the abysmal standards of both local government decision making and of democratic accountability but at the local level their councillors have usually been too buy looking after their own interests.  This referendum will give the people of Salford the opportunity to have a Mayor to rival London’s Boris Johnson!”

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Kosovo, Kosova Again!

This blog has had much to say about Kosovo and the EU down the years as may be read from here. Now we have the always obvious consequences, read here, from which comes this:

Masked Serbs attacked and burned down a border post at the Serbia-Kosovo border yesterday (27 July) and fired at members of NATO's KFOR peacekeeping force. Two days ago Kosovo forces had launched a similar attack. The EU strongly condemned both attacks.

As I commented to a Daily Telegraph comment thread in August 2008, (before they banned me):

"We should best seek to influence only where we have the wherewithal. The EU has gravely erred over Kosovo and as I repeatedly blogged last February the consequences will be severe. The fault lies with the High Representative Javier Solana and the best starting point for the EU to at least begin to recoup matters would be to take the necessary urgent steps for his summary removal. David Miliband would be best employed in gaining support for such a move from his EU colleagues rather than rushing off to Georgia. The pretence that the Lisbon Treaty can be salvaged and the ongoing push for a diplomatic corps and identity (impossible under Nice) further complicates the chaos caused by the existing contradictions between the role of the EU Presidency, the EU Commission and the High Representive. We are part of the EU that has largely caused this mess, we should be working through the EU to clear that portion up before considering how we can thereafter proceed through Nato, the UN or other security bodies. One other thought, will there be any consequences for the Georgian President's TV posturing with the EU flag? If not, why not?"

A few days before that, here, on this blog I had pointed out the following:

When other world leaders take on the increasingly obvious fact that the EU's leaders are solely concerned with power plays within the grouping, shuffling as much cash as possible back to their own party political organisations and clients and maximising their future pensions, perks and positions within the EU organisation - the sooner this dangerous bunch of chancers and no- hopers can be removed from any influence over world events - and the safer and more financially secure we might all become!
(Emphasis in red added 29th July 2011)

The entire world is now learning that painful lesson, unhappily not solely with regard to Kosova, not a mis-spelling, please read this from here!

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Thursday, July 28, 2011

RBS and Santander opt for a 21% to 67% Haircut on their Greek Bonds

The report of the taxpayer owned, British bank RBS, and the high profile but struggling Santander, to accept haircuts on their Greek bonds to further prop up the doomed Euro Currency, comes from SFGate on the West Coast of the USA and is linked here. (Sorry I missed this earlier .... please blame a birthday celebration).

If you are curious as to how come the cost could be as much as 67%, please see the article linked earlier from The Market Oracle, repeated here. I quote:

Let’s see what the "voluntary” debt rollovers will look like and what the likely debt destruction will be. This is from Global Macro Monitor. First, notice that the plan claims haircuts will only be 21%. But that assumes you can sell the new bonds at a 9% interest rate. If the interests rate demanded by the market are 15%, which is closer to reality, the haircuts are closer to 67%, after what appears to be an initial 20% cut. Will any institution not immediately try and get those bonds into the hands of the ECB? This is just ugly."

Also from the same report, is this, on the bailout by Britain's taxpayers of the Bank of Ireland on which I posted last weekend:

If and when the BoI loses its race to stay private, it's the Irish taxpayers who will pick up the tab for an extra 2.65% interest on loans from RBS, along with any other obligations passed on by the private banking sector. Considering these developments and the ongoing effects of current austerity measures, it is difficult to see the Irish people remaining "docile" for much longer. There is only a certain amount of restraint that can be imposed by cultural perceptions before the reality of economic desperation sets in. They are now merely remaining "calm like a bomb", and the fuse on that device has been lit.

Of course, from a British taxpayer's point of view, the extra interest is the premium always required for loans of a riskier nature. A point Greek PM Papandreou, missed when boasting yesterday, to his party faithful, that Greece was borrowing at rates just above those of Germany, the reward for penalty of having sacrificed all national sovereignty and the cold reality that Germany now owns Greece.

This evening, as warned on this blog 24 hours ago, the Cyprus government has resigned and appears likely to be the next Euro Group member to require a bailout.

Meantime the warning from the IMF to France is now receiving coverage in Europe, read here, a quote:

"France cannot risk missing its medium-term fiscal targets, given the need to strengthen implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and keep borrowing costs low by securing France's AAA rating," the IMF report stated.

With one of the highest overall tax rates in Europe, France's best solution would be to reduce government spending in areas of health care and pensions to meet its medium-term targets, the IMF recommended. They at the same time urged the government to lower the taxes on labour, in an attempt to elevate France's competitiveness and tackle structural unemployment.

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Bailouts, Austerity and Rage from The Market Oracle

Many of the points that have been made by this blog, in individual postings, during the past few days, have been pulled together in this gripping (but frightening) review, with many links, from The Market Oracle, concentrating on Greece and Ireland, and linked from here.


ECB may gain one good asset from Bankia - Christiano Ronaldo!

A report from Insider Business Europe that appeared last evening, may be one piece of good news for Jean-Claude Trichet before he departs on holidays, probably in St Malo again!

The troubled Spanish Caja, Bankia, it seems, may run into further difficulties and  thereby offer the ECB some proper collateral in the form of a contract with the footballer Ronaldo!

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Italian August bond sale cancellation - Tremonti, Bossi

"Italy will cancel its mid-month auction for medium and long-term bonds, known as BTPs, "considering the large cash availability and the limited borrowing requirement"

A problem for Italy's Finance Minister involving paying rent in cash for a Rome apartment from Reuters linked here. Image found from the comment threads to Zero Hedge, linked here.

Italian bonds yields are on the rise on the rumours of Tremonti's resignation, but the fundamentals make it difficult to believe the lethal 6.0% level will not soon be breached. More from the New York Times from here.


How much will Greek Bailout 2.0 Cost?

A hilarious video from EurActive, illustrating  the Euro Group CHAOS:


Trying to understand the Germans

A Daily Telegraph report this morning, appears to signal yet another about face by Angela Merkel's administration over bailouts, read from here, this follows the collapse of Cyprus, as I reported on this blog last evening.

More on the total confusion over what the Euro Groupe actually agreed last week may be read from here in EurActiv and here from the WSJ!

In response to my posting on Frederick Forsyth's newspaper article last Sunday, warning of a German Fourth Reich, I was contacted by the author of "Sorry I Am German", a Polemic, by Detlef Gürtler, via his publisher  with a pdf of his book. which may be purchased as an e-book from here. It is worth the read, at only €3.99 but throws little light on where the EU might go next, I am sorry to say!

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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Cyprus next Euro Group Country for the Knackers Yard?

The PM of Cyprus has asked his entire Cabinet to hand in their resignations. With its power supply station blown up in a munitions dump explosion, see here, billions loaned to Greece, linked here - AND a downgrade by Moody's from A2 to Baa1, things are almost as ghastly as in London, where the citizens of that overcrowded, once upon a time centre of excellence,  have, this evening, been forcibly reminded that it is now only one year before the Olympic Games come to add to their daily misery of movement and increase in taxation!

We must hope that Cyprus is not the key to the extra support for the EFSF when bonds of Italy and Spain start to be purchased in the secondary markets as agreed last week, I guess Belgium will just have to stump up the extra, they may well agree - having no Government!

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Two Urgent Facts the British people need to consider and address.

1. The political leaders of the three main political parties have allowed the UK political system to become usurped by a corrupt media. How can the country expect those party leaders, so clearly completely controlled by outside interests, to steer a new course in the crisis riven western world now clearly emerging?

2. The decisions taken at the meeting last week of the leaders of the Euro Group of European States, will substantially change the nature of the European Union, far beyond the entity ever even contemplated by the Lisbon Treaty. What will Britain's place be alongside the certain totalitarian and non-democratic, centrally controlled nightmare that will emerge?

The following videos describe what has now been delivered to Greece, other small nations will soon be similarly crushed in pursuit of centralised power in Europe, the very real nightmare that has existed down the centuries, which generations from our islands have fought to prevent, is now becoming reality with NONE resisting.

H/T Covering Delta

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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

IMF could soon seek yet more funding!

Only days after Westminster nodded through almost £10 billion pouns worth of extra funding, another request for extra cash could soon be on its way, according to this report from Fox News.

Bloomberg, read between the lines, from this link, seems to suggest that there is a hint of panic about the EU deal, in the words of the new head of the IMF. The fixed grin of your normal synchronised swimmer, it appears, may soon struggle to remain in place! A small quote is here:

“Turbulence could easily resurface,” even though the agreement by the 17-country euro region’s leaders “has been welcomed by financial markets,” Lagarde said according to remarks prepared for delivery in New York today. “For this reason, it is essential that the summit’s commitments should be implemented quickly.”

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Greek debt to stabilize at 160% of GDP - Ouch!

A report from Wells Fargo Securities, linked here in pdf, confirms that the long term sustainability of Greek Debt under Bailout 2.0 is far from assured.

Executive Summary

In the first of two special reports on the European sovereign debt crisis, we analyze the second bailout package for Greece that leaders of the European Union (EU) recently announced. Our calculations show that the package should stabilize the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio at approximately 160 percent over the next few years. However, the calculations are sensitive to assumptions about nominal GDP growth and the government’s primary budget surplus. If the Greek economy should stagnate at fairly slow rates of nominal GDP growth or if the government is unable to incur large primary surpluses for an extended period of time, the debt-to-GDP ratio. will rise further.

In our view, it would be premature to state that Greece is “out of the woods.” In a
soon-to-be-released second report, we will analyze debt sustainability in some other highly indebted European countries.

This blog looks forward to the next report on Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Belgium promised to be available shortly.


The French role in the fracture of the Eurozone!

President Sarkozy is this morning reported in Le Figaro, link in french, as writing to his parliamentarians urging the passage of a "golden rule" requiring a balanced budget. Well may he do so.

France stands pretty much shoulder to shoulder with Britain in relation to the size of its dreadful indebtedness, and seems similarly unsuccessful in implementing meaningful cuts in the face of limited growth. Hailing his success in forcing moves towards a European Monetary Fund, the French President, thus pledging 15 billion euros extra payments by France to the basket case that is Greece, seems blithely unaware of the potential damage to France's AAA credit rating by extending such largesse to Portugal, Ireland and even thereafter, contemplating expensively frittering funds in support of the flailing countries of Italy and Spain, who laughingly will also be providing financing for these ludicrous market finaglings, through the structures of the EFSF.

The Golden rule needs 70 % of votes to pass, and will not be considered until the Autumn, we can therefore view the President's letter as the usual "grande" grandstanding.

The election will then be  a few short months away, will the Socialists find a candidate who can cash in on the anti-EU sentiment which is by then certain to be widespread, or will the longer-standing anti-EU-federalist parties be the beneficiaries?

Germany's Bundestag and electorate may well be persuaded that the financial costs of last week's package, may have some benefit to their country. Can France's parliament, faced with looming elections, really be persuaded that such penury for France's voters will ever have any benefit for France, when it merely seems to serve as the foundation for German control of the western end of the European peninsular?

Let us also not forget the IMF which, in spite of Lagarde, has yet to pronounce on last week's muddled and incomplete package:

The above video, of the Greek Finance Minister meeting the IMF yesterday, issued by AFP., does not work in some countries (of which, strangely, France appears to be one such), further explanation of the delicacy of this matter can be guaged from this link, whence comes the following quote:

But Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance, indicated that the IMF had promised it would expand its loan program. Dallara's IIF is a trade group that represents the world's leading banks and is spearheading talks with Greece.
"It's clear that Europe, and not just the private financial community, predicated its renewed commitments on continued IMF support," Dallara said, adding that the agreed "additional support" from the fund "was endorsed by all the officials in the room."
If the IMF were to refuse more financing for Greece, "not only is our deal invalid, but Europe's whole plan," Dallara said. "We all know that this does not work without continued IMF support," he said.
The decision on additional IMF funding is ultimately decided by the executive board that represents shareholder countries. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said last week that based on the deal for a new financing package, "the IMF will continue to play its part."

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Monday, July 25, 2011

Euro Group's fudged deal falters as Chaos looms in the EU!

The Economist Magazine, hardly a haven of EU scepticism, has a summary of the further deep mess in which the Euro countries have now landed themselves in an analysis titled "Containment Breached"   which includes this statement:

The only ways to break to the cycle are through large reductions in debt levels or through greater fiscal transfers that cushion economies against the impact of austerity. Last week's deal was hailed for its boldness, but in terms of actual reductions in debt burdens, only Greece's obligations were involved, and those look likely to be cut too little to put the Greek economy back on a sustainable footing.

Yet a posting to a Reuters blog, actually reckons that Greek debt will increase, read here, as follows:

The IMF also forecast that the country’s debt/GDP ratio would peak next year at 172 percent of GDP. To calculate a new debt/GDP ratio, therefore, it is only necessary to add the unanticipated extra debt. That is what is done in the Breakingviews analysis to produce a new figure of 179 percent

The net result, as many other postings across Google make clear, is that the bond roll-over will most likely not be taken up by many bond-holders, while the offer of a 21% haircut has nevertheless made a Greek Default a racing certainty.

Yet David Cameron and George Osborne maintain that the Euro Group Leaders are now on the right track!!

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A detailed critique with amusing cartoons of the EU Summit statement!

Just one of several amusing cartoons plus very valid criticisms available from here.

H/T Covering Delta


Moody's sends warning shot to six 'triple A rated' Euro Group nations!

The whole essence of last week's latest fudge from the Eurozone leaders was that they would stand behind all the debtor nations within the entire group of seventeen ex-nations. This morning Moody's has taken them at their word and warned of the inevitable consequences. The FT has the report in its Capital Markets pages, linked here. A brief quote from there is the following: also warned that, in spite of reducing contagion in some ways, last week’s set of measures to shore up the eurozone could lead to downgrades of the creditor countries because of the precedent for future bail-outs. That would spell bad news for the likes of Germany and especially France, which some investors had already worried could be downgraded from its triple-A status.

So far Moody's has been silent on whether the package agreed last week, esitmtated to result in a haircut of 21% for banks on their Greek bonds creates a default. Whether this will same figure will apply on bonds of Ireland and Portugal, whether it will trigger payment of credit default swaps AND of course whether the USA will further increase its already stupendous borrowing limits, should become clearer as the week progresses. Interesting times indeed, this blog will, as usual, keep an eye open and post the developments perhaps not immediately noted elsewhere!


Sunday, July 24, 2011

Bank of Spain takes over Caja Mediterraneo, or CAM

The Spanish Central Bank will supply 2.8 billion euros ($4.02 billion) in a cash-for-stock transaction, read here, from the Latin American Herald Tribune. The deal was announced last Friday but seems little unpublicised in Europe. The rot in Spanish banking seemingly not worthy of much attention.

To meet CAM’s immediate liquidity needs, Banco de España also will extend the regional savings bank a 3-billion-euro ($4.3-billion) emergency line of credit.

The Board of Directors of CAM were sacked yesterday! A good example for Britain!


Protests against German destruction of UK rail rolling-stock manufacture in Derby!

A protest rally of thousands took place yesterday in Derby, home to the former British Railways manufacturing facility, now run by the Canadian firm Bombardier, has received a report from the East Midlands, Capital FM linked here.

There is little reporting in the real Capital of our former nation, in London, where the decision makers of our country spend their working lives destroying our manufacturing base, in accordance with German wishes, see our earlier posting on Frederick Forsyth's article in the Irish Independent, linked below!


Where Progressives like Cameron are taking the EU including Britain!

A pdf file, linked here, titled 'Improving European Economic Governance' issued by the 'Foundation for European Progressive Studies' on page 4 describes its planning as being for 'Peacetime' (are they contemplating other circumstances?) It concludes with the following:

An International Debt Resolution Mechanism:

* should be based on principles of burden sharing contained in the chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy code of the United States
* extensively use GDP linked bonds and Eurobonds as exit instruments
* operate quickly targeting the timeline for a sovereign bankruptcy of less than 6
* make provision for adequate debtor in possession financing
* use an independent panel of experts who are supported by a dedicated secretariat
* address both loans and bonds
* cover liabilities owed to both private and public entities and
* operate under the aegis of a respected international body with a statutory status

This blog offers this insight so that Sunday Telegraph readers and Britain's electorate can be aware of just exactly where David Cameron and George Osborne, consider the "right" direction for our country.


Frederick Forsyth warns the Irish of the Fourth Reich

In the Irish Independent, this morning, the author of 'The Day of the Jackal' and 'The Odessa File' spells out the facts of the latest EU agreement for the people of Ireland, read here.

We must all hope that Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, does not believe any of the garbage he reportedly wrote (as summarised elsewhere) in today's Sunday Telegraph, on the EU now being on a better course!

The huge sums of taxpayers money, on which I posted yesterday evening, promised by the UK is hopefully being offered as a lifeline to the Irish people, with whom we share thes precious islands, happily all well removed from the European Continental land mass, which has always been the greatest source of danger to democracy, freedom and our own particular way of life. The Irish Times reports that talks on saving the Bank of Ireland are continuing today, read here.

In the coming weeks I will be publishing an electronic version of my book 'Millennium Blitzkrieg', written in the middle to late nineteen-nineties, predicting all this coming to a climax in the year 2014. Links will be made available from this blog. I quote below the critical section of Mr Forsyth's article:

Germany is not Father Christmas and would never dream of putting up such sums either out of brotherly generosity or even to save the EU superstate. It will do it for two reasons.
First, the vast majority is never intended to be disbursed. It will simply be moved from the German Federal Bank to the European Central Bank; a paper transaction between two banks about 500 yards apart in Frankfurt.
Secondly, it will be said that this huge treasure is an available float to reassure the banks (ie the money markets) which it will, that they will all be covered if such a thing as the last two years should ever happen again. Therein lies the hidden sting. The German's intend to ensure that it never happens again. Ever.
And there is only one way to ensure that. Run the joint. So for the weaklings the deal will be put with silken ruthlessness. If you want to remain in the EU you must remain in the eurozone.
To do that you must sign up to the European Monetary Fund. This guarantees that you do not go bust, but it has rules. The first is that you hand over to wiser heads the running of your economy.
You will hand it over to the EMF. But who will really control the EMF? Brussels? No, Berlin. It will be called fiscal (or economic) union but that will only mask Germany's mastery.
Many historians overlook a simple fact about both world wars. They were not just about marching infantry (the first) or rolling tanks (the second). In complete parallel to German aggression in 1914 and 1939 were immensely detailed plans from Berlin's economics ministry for the full unification of Europe's economies. But with strict terms.
Germany does not want your competition in manufactured products. It has enough of its own and more. It needs to export the surplus in huge quantities to keep those factories rolling and the electorate employed and happy. That is best achieved by client states.
It also wants a constant stream of cheap food to fill those 80 million German bellies, the other half of the 'happy electorate' equation. Both are the jobs of colonies: to provide cheap labour, raw materials, agricultural produce and a ready market for the trinkets.
So the arc from Greece (south-east) via Italy (south-central) to Spain/Portugal (south-west) and Ireland (due west) will have to be deindustrialised to fill the role. Actually, it is well under way. All five countries have for some time been undergoing slow de-industrialisation. Berlin's final control of this was sealed last Thursday. And, of course, the EMF will not only fix your borrowing rates to ensure you never go mad again, but also your tax rates.
Now, if there is one thing that has really irritated Germany it has been Ireland's tiny corporation taxes which have drawn billions in investments into Ireland. That is competition, and not the job of a colony. So your taxes will have to rise.
If you disbelieve me, glance at the helpless George Papandreou down there in Athens. A premier in name only. In truth a puppet now, a regional bailiff doing the bidding of others far away.
How ironic that what two years ago seemed possibly to be the death knell of the eurozone has been transformed by German money into the guarantee of the super-state. For Ireland, membership is beckoning ... but only as a servant.
The British, I am surer now than for years, will not go down that road. We no longer want to boss anyone around, but we will not be bullied either. Between a locked-in Europe of forelock-tuggers and the wide open seas, we will, like our fathers, pick the oceans.

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Treasures from the threads - Number 64

The quoted comment comes to an article by Janet Daley in the Telegraph Online:


One of the scariest things about the Norwegian killer was he holds the same beliefs as many people commenting here and on other newspaper sites, namely that immigration has gone too far and the EU is an evil socialist union, these are things that many people agree with but we don't hear hardly any discussion of, especially on the BBC.

In his video (now deleted) the "EUSSR" takes centre stage. These are not fringe lunatic views but the views of millions all over europe and one's that I would certainly agree with.

The difference between him and other commenters is he was cold and evil and insane enough to execute 15 yr old children where as most would find the idea repulsive, I've fought in a war and witnessed killing and bloodshed but that would take a soul far darker than mine.

I generally have a good forsight, and am able to predict where most things are headed with some degree of accuracy in politics, not because I'm nostradamus, but because I usually ignore the mainstream media and read between the lines, as I'm sure many others do.

Now, my point is, how long before we see another attack, not aimed against children, but possibly against Muslims or EU organisations, how long can the people that run the countries of europe keep ignoring the people that live in them.

Somewhere along the line they've forgotten that they're supposed to serve and they now think it's ok to show open contempt for us.

How do we force these discussions of the blog pages and into the mainstream media, to prevent violence from nutters who feel they're not being listened to.

Discussions like this need to be on the BBC evening news, not  on obscure blog pages, we're talking about the slow giving away of our national sovereinty for heavens sake, why in gods name is it not newsworthy enough for the state funded broadcaster.

Until we, the peaceful amongst us, stand up and force this into the evening news, we stand the risk of nutters making political statements for our beleifs.
Something has to change drastically, or more violence will surely follow, especially as the Euro collapses and people's wages wont buy a loaf of bread, there will then be millions of angry people having seen their country's wealth sqaundered by the elites who've ignored them at every turn with nothing left to lose, what do you think they might do?



Amy Winehouse & Rebecca Leighton - A Double Dose of Despair?

Amy Whitehouse, died at 27 years of age, on the same day that Rebecca Leighton, 27 years of age, was charged with criminal damage with intent to endanger life, following the deaths of five patients at Stepping Hill hospital. Co-incidence perhaps, yet both youngsters surely epitomize the despair that the baby boomer generation has passed to so many of their children.

Take the words of Amy Whitehouse’s greatest hit, “They tried to make me go to rehab, I said, “ no,no,no”. Consider the press pictures of the partying Rebecca Leighton, but consider too what may have motivated her - trained as  she was as a nurse, in an environment of cost cutting and huge administrative incompetence. What was the attitude of those who should have been her role models from Stepping Hill hospital to the very peak of the NHS within succeeding Cabinets. Hypocrisy was and is the ethos of the NHS, contempt for the sick and elderly the truly sickening end result.

Was news of the evil acts emanating from Norway the final straw for Winehouse? We will never know!

Few of us who had the duty, to care for and nurture today’s younger adult generation, can examine our own lifestyles with a completely clear conscience, I would wager. What motivated Anders Behring Breivik, we shall soon, no doubt, hear in his own words. Those who should be in the dock with Rebecca Leighton, we shall never know, but let us hope, that they themselves, at least have some remaining shreds of decency and self-awareness to at least have a clue.

The above post will eventually be also published on "Orphans of Liberty" 

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Saturday, July 23, 2011

How much has Britain committed to Ireland? €9.9 Billion?

Here is a table (link to source) showing how the initial Irish Bailout was made up:

Source of Financing Amount
Irish Resources from the National Pension Reserve Fund 17.5 bn €
IMF 22.5 bn €
EFSM 22.5 bn €
EFSF 17.7 bn €
Bilateral Loan UK 3.8 bn €
Bilateral Loan Sweden 0.6 bn €
Bilateral Loan Denmark 0.4 bn €
Total 85.0 bn €

Given that as a rule of thumb Britain contributes approximately 4% to IMF expenditures, and that Britain's share of the total  €60 billion EFSM is expected to cost Britain a mere €7.5 billion, read here, (or €5.5 billion here), then we can deduce the following for Ireland from the UK:

Bilateral Loan € 3.8 billion ( Interest rate reduced by about 2% yesterday).

IMF                 €0.9 Billion

EFSM             €2.8 Billion (or €2.1 billion on the lower 5.5 billion EFSM cost)

RBS to BoI     €1.7 Billion  (Assuming taxpayer losses of only 58% of the €2.9 paid)

Grand Total    €9.2 Billion

Quite a price for Britain's taxpayers!

N.B. Update 24/7/11 7:00 am. -The assumption that taxpayers own 58% of RBS was based on out of date information. It is apparently 83%, see here, the taxpayer share of the €2.9 billion advanced to the Bank of Ireland by RBS, to prevent nationalisation by Ireland, is an actual further charge of €2.4 billion, leaving the true total to €9.9 billion.  That is about £8.8 billion of British taxpayer liability all agreed without benefit of being either budgeted by, or voted for, in our Parliament.


Has Bank of Ireland been rescued by British taxpayers through RBS?

Strange goings on again in international banking circles, read this from the Irish Independent! Are Britain's taxpayers now bankrolling the independent Irish State, which has in utter stupidity pledged Ireland's people for generations to come to underwrite all the bad debts of the profligate Irish banks.

More background is available from Golem XIV, linked here. H/T Calling England

Update - Further analysis on the impact of recent events on banks in the British Isles, from the FT is here.

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Dutch Press confused over new Bailout costs!

An article from Holland, this morning, shows the nonsensical confusion that lies at the heart of the deal cobbled together in Brussels last Thursday, with that country's Prime Minister stating it is €109 Billion while the EU makes it €159 Billion, a considerable difference, especially considering that it will all be as wasted as the €110 billion frittered away last year! Read one report, from here.


Timo Soini on Finland's €2 Billion share of next Greek Bailout

The newspaper report, in english, is linked here. A quote:

It’s no cause of happiness that the losses from this crisis will be socialised and paid for by taxpayers,” said Soini in a YLE interview. “In practice, Greece is insolvent.

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French indebtedness to rise by €15 Billion in Greek Bailout 2.0!

Le Figaro this  morning is beginning to drip the reality of last week's mind-blowing incompetence of the Euro Group's leadership, in splashing further funds they do not have, to rescue the Greeks from a default on its debts which has thus become ever more certain.

When this blog was posted, the linked article had attracted 631 comments, almost without exception hostile to the new bailout.

This blog believes Britain should wait and watch developments before taking any decisions on its attitude to the latest crisis. As reported in the posting below, the money from the IMF may not even be forthcoming, while the collapse of other Governments of presently triple AAA rated Euro Group countries is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Having hung on for so long, and expended so much in pursuit of remaining a member of the EU club, rash action in the immediate furture could be disastrous.

This blogger therefore welcomes George Osborne's decision to decrease the rate of interest on our loan to Ireland, announced yesterday!


More IMF cash for Greece? A view from Australia!

MSN has a viewpoint from an Australian point of view, linked here. The time must be approaching, regardless of the appointment of the ill-equipped Lagarde to head the organisation, where the nation's that stump up the IMF cash, such as Australia, Canada and most importantly the USA, say "Enough"!

Unhappily Britain will not be involved, with EU Pensioner, Nick Clegg now effectively running the country, due to the mangling of Cameron by Murdoch. Note this amusing cartoon from Prospect Magazine, linked here.

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Britain and the EU - is the moment of truth at hand?

Events during the past week, must throw the relations between those countries within the Euro Group, completely at odds with those former countries who remain, and wish to continue to remain, outside.

This blog, will follow such developments very closely, but for the moment, refrain from suggesting alternatives it would like to be considered. Detail on the fudge around Greece and the muddled proposals on the centralised putative EU State, remain so confused, that reasoned comment is premature in my view.

The Daily Telegraph, knows no such restraint, as may be read from here.

Friday, July 22, 2011

EU Marshall Plan for Greece to be fronted by German Economic Storm Troopers!

Privatisation of Greek national assets through discounted sales to foreigners, perhaps even at discounts to foreign banks "voluntarily" elsewhere rolling over their Greek bonds, are now to be followed by an even stranger misapplication of what the original Marshall Plan for Europe involved. Read here. A quote:

German industry on Thursday displayed its enthusiasm to work in Greece, with the Federation of German Industry (BDI) saying the rescue package agreed by the eurozone countries was only one element of what was needed.

“We also urgently need an investment programme, a business plan, a plan for the reconfiguring of the Greek economy,” said BDI manager Markus Kerber.

The country should not only be able to bear its debts, but with the help of a different economic model, should also be able to achieve earnings in order to reduce its debts in the long term, he said.


Has Spain's Santander Bank ripped off its customers?

There is an extremely interesting article from Bloomberg today, especially given the strange share price movements on the first day of trading for Bankia earlier this week, on how Santander has seemingly been shoring up its capital base  possibly contrary to the interests of its own depositers. The full article is here, from which comes this startling quote:

Banks such as Santander sell bonds convertible into stock to “dodge the bullet” of immediately diluting existing investors, said Simon Maughan, head of sales and distribution at MF Global Ltd. in London. Asking clients to buy stock-linked investments risks alienating them if they’re burdened with losses, he said.
“The last thing you want is 130,000 disgruntled clients,” Maughan said, referring to the mandatory convertible bonds sold by Santander. “If worse comes to worst they may have to compensate the customers and obviously that’s going to be unpleasant.”


Early reactions to Greek Bailout 2.0

Bloomberg TV has just completed an interesting interview which will be linked here once available. In summary the interviewee, Mr Buiter, of Citibank, stated that if the ECB is allowed to intervene in secondary markest pending the legal re-structuring and re-financing of the EFSF, to allow that fund so to do, the crunch for the Euro Zone could have been defrred to September as a result of yesterday's meeting.

If this is not the case and the ECB continues to be unable to provide support for Spanish and Italian bonds, then the whole thing could collapse as early as next week.

My impression, watching the interview, was incredulity at the smug self-satisfaction as the banks are laughing all the way back to their offices, knowing once again that Europe's taxpayers will take the hits, while bankers continue their excesses.

How long Europe's voters will continue to tolerate these outrages remains to be seen? What happened to all the dire warnings of one year ago when a Greek default was seen as a complete disaster for the euro zone.


Only the voters of the EU Core countries can now restore democracy to Europe!

Last night's deal on Greece, set the seal on the EU moving to a centrally controlled transfer union, where brute force will eventually be required to enforce financial moderation in those countires not strictly adhering to the Teutonic economic model.

Moral hazard has been ignored, as such will presumably not be tolerated in the centrally controlled, totalitarian state, the countries using the Euro will now be required to become.

The banks and financial markets have appeared to welcome the outcome, presumably as they will, but only at first, be the sole initial beneficiaries. In the long run, they too will rue this day, that was 21st July 2011.

Countries which are not in the Euro Group, will see their re-payments made to the EFSM under the terms of the first Greek Bailout, disappear and lose interest payments for as much as forty years. If Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, under the leadership of David Cameron and Nick Clegg, agrees to such losses at a time of severe economic peril for Britain's own economy, their parties too, will deserve a complete crushing, if and whenever another general election is granted. Be warned, in times such as these, with leaders such as ours, that too is now at risk!

Link to Statement on 21/7/11 Meeting Agreements in pdf  format, added 0855 BST


Thursday, July 21, 2011

ECB's Trichet indicates its Greek Bonds not involved in voluntary private selective default!

Euro Group leaders have pledged 35 Billion euros to re-finance failing Greek banks was another interesting item coming in repsonse to questions following the ECB chief's press conference which to me threw further confusion on an alreagy mind-boggling series of exchanges between the MSM and the EU leaders.

One thing seems sure as I leave it there for today. Greek default, so long denied is here!


Sarkozy announces EU Economic Governance failure.

French President Sarkozy, speaking live as I type, is announcing nothing is likely to emerge from today's Euro Group meeting other, perhaps, than something for Greece Bail Out Mark II. He will have more in the Autumn.

Asked about the selective default of Greece, he stated that the world is watching and he would not use that word, he was not a rating agency.

Chaos once again seems to reign from the EU's clearly sub-standard and not fit for purpose leaders!

If something saner emerges shortly I will update this post! More probably we can review the extent of this typical EU failure over the coming days!

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Markets rally on reports of latest Euro Fudge

Described as a copy of the original Marshall Plan which rescued Germany from excessive debts following World War Two, financial markets have rallied on early reports of the draft of proposed steps to rescue the Euro.

The Guardian has a regularly update web page on developments from the Euro Group Council Meeting, linked here.

The short term fix, probably designed to allow the EU leadership to enjoy their normal extended summer vacations, seems to be confusing the 'as usual' completely gullible markets. Rest assured the crisis will return with a vengeance sooner rather than later.

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European Union Act

The European Union Bill, has received Royal Assent and is now an Act of Parliament and therefore the law of the land, further cementing the deep treachery of the Conservative Party in its complete betrayal of the people of Britain. It may be read from here.

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Michel Barnier - Ruler of the City of London -refuses interviews in English!

The arrogant Frenchman who presumes to govern the City of London thanks to the corruption and negligence of Britain's politicians, in announcing new controls aimed to destroy London's role in international finance, (plus a huge portion of the nation's tax base,) has refused to speak English in an interview with the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, broadcast this morning.

The BBC has not provided a live link to the interview, which covered none of the sweeping proposals and policies now planned, presumably as part of their complete domination by the thoroughly corrupt and totally inept EU. This interview, similarly conducted in French, from Euronews, illustrates the arrogance of this senior EU figure, intent on destroying Britain's financial prowess, just as the EU has now completed its intention of sweeping our seas completely clean of living fish!

The EU has already proved its ability to constantly regulate bringing the prospect of complete economic collapse, possibly extending across the world, as was actually being warned, on the same day by Barnier's apparent boss, the former revolutionary marxist EU Commission President Barroso!



Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Coalition Government must remove itself from Control by the Murdoch Media Manipulation Machine.

On Sunday 5th September last year, I made a long posting on Cameron and Coulson and the disgraceful consequences of that relationship. It linked the New York Times report on the hacking scandal, which before today's Commons debate, merits re-reading in full, linked here.

The title I chose for the posting was"Cameron's stain on Downing Street - Andy Coulson" Things have worsened considerably since that time, as is widely covered elsewhere. The concluding portion of that posting remains completely valid, especially in view of the Sarkozy meeting with Merkel in Berlin today and tomorrow's emergency Euro Group meeting, which seems likely to transfer debts of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy at least onto Britains' already debt-laden taxpayers.

David Cameron, fond of being snapped breathing germs only millimetres from the faces of his various offspring, is in reality a hard nosed political opportunist, who (as this blog has repeatedly raised in various postings) has already sold out the main firm commitment from the Conservative manifesto remaining in the Coalition Agreement, namely not to surrender further British Sovereignty to the EU, having done just that on 17th June at the EU Council. Liberal Democrats not wishing to now become tarred by the same brush of sleaze, half-truths and downright untruths which the Downing Street media manipulation machine has become over recent years should quickly re-examine the backgrounds and lack of integrity and judgement that seems to be the rule among the leadership of their coalition partners as Parliament re-convenes after its long break during the past crisis ridden summer. Does the country really wish the connotation of 10 Downing Street to be set by former News of the World editor Andy Coulson? If so many former Tory Prime Ministers must now be turning in their graves.

I personally will be watching for the contribution from Vince Cable to today's debate and the posture of Jeremy Hunt, whom Cameron chose as the vehicle for handing BskyB to the Murdoch's.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Now for the corruption from the EU and within Government services!

We are finally scratching the surface of the obscenities, arising from the cosying up to the press, by senior politicians, of our two thoroughly rotten main poltical parties. Similarly, with the expenses scandal, some of the worst abuses by our elected politicians and peers within the House of Lords has finally begun to be addressed.

The nation cannot pretend that matters either end there, or just with the police.

This blog has several times in the past reported on certain blatant abuses of power within the civil service, all of which have gone completely ignored elsewhere. It would be the height of stupidity for any to believe that there are not similar abuses underway within local government and the EU regional organisations, which will eventually point us to the corrupt centre of all excesses, those delivered to us by our membership of the European Union.

The non-declaration by certain peers of their EU pensions in supporting amendments to the European Union Bill, in the past few months, is yet another area worthy of urgent and full investigation.

We must remember, in the coming days, that the obvious corruption in Downing Street, is merely giving us a small glimpse of where New Labour and Cameron's Conservatives have taken our nation!

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Monday, July 18, 2011

Cameron flying back to UK as crisis threatens the Coalition

I found this report in the Irish Times, linked here.

British newspapers reported that Mr Cameron was cutting short an Africa trip to fly home to deal with the crisis that has shaken Britons' faith in the police, press and political leaders.

Also from the same newspaper comes this on Sir (read more from this blog on what that handle has come to indicate) Paul Stephenson's resignation :

He added that he had not told Mr Cameron about Mr Wallis's employment as a consultant for fear of compromising the prime minister because of Mr Cameron's relationship with Andy Coulson.
The BBC is reporting the trip has merely been cut from five to two days.


Police chief quits throwing Cameron a curved ball!

The senior police officer in Britain, Sir Paul Stephenson, has resigned as Metropolitan Police Commissioner, proving the depths of the culture of corruption that has swept across Britain since our absorbtion into the political processes of the Continent of Europe. Read here and pretty well everywhere else across Britain's MSM this morning. One  exception is The Guardian which selects as its lead online headline, the arrest of Rebekah Brooks, who attended a police station believing she was to be interviewed as a witness, on criminal charges.

As I posted on Saturday morning, linked here, this poses a tremendous problem for the Conservative and Liberal Democratic parties. Although Nick Clegg, the EU automated dummy, seemed blissfully unaware of the crisis facing the nation of which he is Deputy Prime Minister, in a TV interview he gave yesterday morning.

Greece is on a knife edge, according to the IMF, read here, and the theory used in the EBA bank stress tests last Friday that Greek bonds are still worth 85% of their issued value seems to be about to be tested to the possible destruction of the entire world's economy, as suggested here.

Read what this blog had to say on Coulson in Downing Street last September and November, here and here, including the following:

With Coulson at the centre of Britain's Coalition Government the people of the country will sooner rather than later realise they are being governed by a small clique of PR savvy conmen. Long may he remain at the centre of power to spur the few decent men and women remaining in British politics to gather their courage for once in their lives to do the decent thing and eject them all from power.

The moment can no longer be deferred, change must be made before Thursday!

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Sunday, July 17, 2011

EU Bank Stress Test - another EU 'dog and pony show'!

The lid is already starting to be lifted on the normal EU PR farce behind last Friday's bank stress tests. Here are a few items from a report linked here:

Describing the process as "constrained", the EBA admitted that figures given by the banks in some cases "materially" changed after being challenged.
.....the EBA required banks only to take a 15pc loss on holdings of Greek government debt, even though the bonds are currently trading in the market at about half their face value.

Analysts at Credit Suisse said on Friday they calculated that, using figures published by the banks taking part in the tests, 14 should have failed with a total capital shortfall of €45bn – some 18 times the amount that the EBA said the banks that failed needed to raise.

The rot in the loft of Britain's society is today ruthlessly exposed!

On the first Sunday for some 168 years, where the News of the World is absent from the paper racks of the nation, ordinary men and women, without the distraction of some small sex scandal, to titillate them, can now view the extent of the rot at the top of their society, as the ceiling, patched with the sordid news sheets from the Murdoch press, has this past week, been removed. The death watch beetle, wood worm and other nameless destroyers has all too clearly been too long at work. The roof needs replacement!

In the Sunday Telegraph we are informed that the nation's most senior policeman had five weeks free accomodation at the swish and well known health resort of Champneys.

In the Mail on Sunday we are treated to pictures of the BBC Business editor and prime mover in the Lloyds debacle, drinking with Lord Mandelson in a Chipping Norton set party, in which our Prime Minister is quite clearly hopelessly entangled.

I could continue with links and examples, but to what point. Any reading my blogs have been forewarned for years.

What matters is that Britain, as an independent sovereign state has effectively ceased to exist, while our establishment has been engaged in pursuing their own ends, the EU has been handed the reins of power.

What is happening in Europe receives little coverage in our national press. Yet on Thursday, the present useless and ineffective bunch of failed national leaders will gather together to cobble together a solution to an economic crisis the likes of which Europe has never before witnessed!

Looking at our soiled Prime Minister and his pathetic excuse for a Foreign Minister, can we really leave the country to be represented by such men at a gathering to which we have ceded power, AND in whose panic, who knows what might be the outcome?

Read EurActiv -  "The Titanic spectre looms" from here.

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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Cameron has clearly been under Murdoch's control. He must resign!

My blog Teetering Tories, linked here, details in full the entire sorry progress of David Cameron's devious path into Downing Street. A course, that the latest information now published in The Scotsman, linked here, was, it appears, made entirely possible only by the secretive help of Rupert Murdoch and News Corporation, read here.

Twenty-six times in fourteen months he met with News International executives, and once a month with Ms Brooks, AND THAT SINCE BECOMING PRIME MINISTER:

Although Mr Murdoch's News Corp was involved in a controversial bid to take full control of BSkyB, Mr Cameron met senior representatives of the company on 26 occasions from May 2010.

The Prime Minister saw Rebekah Brooks up to 14 times - once a month since he took office.

The Lib/Dems cannot now continue in Coalition with this man heading their Government, nor should the Conservative Party tolerate him remaining as their Leader. The Diary meetings of a man beholden for WHAT?

Diary dates

CAMERON'S meetings with proprietors, editors and senior media executives:

May 2010 Rupert Murdoch, general discussion
June 2010 Rebekah Brooks, Chequers
June 2010 Dominic Mohan (Sun), general discussion
June 2010 News International summer party
June 2010 James Harding (Times), interview
June 2010 Times CEO Summit, speech
July 2010 The Sun Police Bravery Awards reception and dinner
July 2010 Dominic Mohan (Sun), general discussion
July 2010 Colin Myler (News of the World), general discussion
August 2010 Rebekah Brooks, Chequers
September 2010 John Witherow (Sunday Times), general discussion
October 2010 James Harding (Times), Tory party conference
October 2010 Dominic Mohan (Sun) with Rebekah Brooks
October 2010 John Witherow (Sunday Times), Tory party conference
October 2010 News International reception, Tory Party Conference
November 2010 James Murdoch, Chequers
December 2010 The Sun Military Awards reception and dinner
December 2010 Rebekah Brooks and James Murdoch, social
December 2010 Rebekah Brooks, social
March 2011 News of the World Children's Champions Reception, (No 10)
April 2011 James Harding (Times), gen. discussion
May 2011 Dominic Mohan (Sun), general discussion
June 2011 James Harding (Times), general discussion
June 2011 News International summer party, social
June 2011 Times CEO Summit, speech
July 2011 The Sun Police Bravery Awards reception and dinner

Yet never forget the EU is on the verge of complete disintegration, see my earlier postings of today, immediately below. A rapid changeover at the top seems essential before next Thursday's crisis EU meeting!

Cameron's resignation should be demanded immediately!


EUseless, so-called Leaders, to meet Thursday

The Irish Times reports an emergency meeting next Thursday, of the heads of the one-time governments of the EU to discuss the growing crisis.

Some emergency, that can wait until Thursday eh? Mind you they could as well wait for ever if they expect anything helpful being decided, with these blinkered, dreamworld inhabitants having to ever realise the depths of the pit into which they have plunged us all!


My comment to the Euractiv Titanic article.

I submitted this comment to EurActiv at the foot of their Titanic article, linked here, with some extra editing and a link to the Europa passage by the father of modern journalism (Murdoch employees take not) W.T. Stead.

WT Stead in Europa 1899 wrote - "The Federation of Europe at the present moment is like an embryo in the later stages of gestation. It is not yet ready to be born. But it has quickened with conscious life, and already the Continent feels the approaching travail.

It has been a slow process. The great births of Time need great preparations. Under the foundations of the Cathedral of St. Isaac at St. Petersburg a whole forest of timber was sunk in piles before a basis strong enough for the mighty dome could be secured. The Federation of Europe is a temple far vaster than any pile of masonry put together by the hands of man. In the morass of the past its foundations have been reared, not upon the spoils of the forest, but upon generation of living men who have gone down into the void from red battlefield and pest-smitten camp and leaguered city in order that upon their bones the Destinies might lay the first courses of the new State. Carlyle's famous illustration of the Russian regiment at the siege of Zeidnitz, which was deliberately marched into the fosse in order that those followed after might march to victory over a pavement of human heads, represents only too faithfully the material on which these great world fabrics are reared."

We must view the present EU as a necessary learning experience and sacrifice it in pursuit of something more truly worthwhile. Only by a completely fresh start can there be any hope for Europe and the values of the West, the original concept of which the present construct was intended to promote.

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EU mouthpiece website headlines sinking Titanic!

The front page of the EU fanatical EurActiv carries the above front page image today!

Its competitor in this field, the sometime more sceptical EUobserver settles for the Lehman offices, just before default, questioning the departure of 80% of EU staff heading on vacation at this juncture. Its 100% for all time, that this blog waits to witness!

Both images are apt; Italy passed its austerity package, too little and far, far too late. The Bank stress tests with no provision for any default and yesterday's EU Commission proposal to try to monitor the type of fuel of the ships of the world that may pass through the English Channel, will prove fitting memorials enough for this foul and repressive organisation.


Friday, July 15, 2011

Nigel Farage warns of Euro meltdown - January 2009, Strasbourg

Nobody can say they were not warned, before the currencies launch, again and again - here on its 10th anniversary at the European Parliament, soon we hope, to be disbanded! Its rotten Members and pensioners set loose with nothing!


If Greece soon defaults what value are the EU banks' stress tests?

It seems the entire world except for Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schauble her Finance Minister and perhaps also President Sarkozy, now expect Greece to default, perhaps even with days.

It would save a lot of banking analysts a lost weekend reviewing the results of the ridiculous EU bank stress tests, due out in half an hour, if Greece just defaulted now and we could all finally discover where all the vast debts really are hidden.

No provision has been made for ANY Sovereign Default in any of the EU countries for these supposedly "more realistic" tests than those last year.

One report on the tests is here. The real situation in Spain as to how that country handles the losses from their own property bubble, will, of course, not be covered. My comments on that topic will appear shortly on Orphans of Liberty.

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Lagarde sidelined in looming battle of IMF vs EU

The Irish Times has a report which includes the following in this morning's edition:

European diplomats said Ms Lagarde’s deputy, John Lipsky, made crucial interventions at that meeting.
European diplomats said Mr Lipsky arrived at the euro group meeting with a “shopping list” of bailout fund reforms, many of them mirroring proposals advanced by EU economics commissioner Olli Rehn.
With no sign of any easing in the turmoil, the IMF’s assertiveness is perceived to reflect frustration with Europe’s hesitant response to the crisis.
The fund’s mission chief to Ireland Ajai Chopra was unsparing yesterday as he called for a comprehensive solution to the debt debacle.“The problems that Ireland faces are not just an Irish problem. They’re a shared European problem,” he told reporters in Dublin at the end of an EU-IMF “troika” mission to Ireland.
“What we need and what’s lacking so far is a European solution to a European problem. What’s critical now is for Europe to dispel the uncertainty that’s being created by the lack of what’s perceived by markets as an insufficient response.”

The IMF sees the solution to the growing global financial crisis as starting with an authoritarian pan-european government in the EU.  Meetings such as these, followed by complete indecision and total incoherance from EU leaders, will hopefully eventually convince them that this is no way to proceed.

A return to independent sovereign states across Europe, is the one sane way ahead, where incompetent rulers such as those presently in power, can be promptly removed as the consequences of their misgovernance become obvious.

The present situation allows them all, to blame the others!

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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Draft Treaty of new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in English

This draft dated 18th May 2011 in English was tracked down by Denis Cooper.

The introduction is in Finnish but the entire draft is in English. The question, tonight is, will the euro survive long enough to ever need this new Treaty?

The file in pdf format is linked from here.

Take note of these ESM key percentages, for I will be illustrating the absurdity of future rates of distress, based on the present PIIGS progress up to this point of summer 2011 sometime soon!

Country ESM key (%)
Kingdom of Belgium 3,4771
Federal Republic of Germany 27,1464
Republic of Estonia 0,1860
Ireland 1,5922
Hellenic Republic 2,8167
Kingdom of Spain 11,9037
French Republic 20,3859
Italian Republic 17,9137
Republic of Cyprus 0,1962
Grand Duchy of Luxembourg 0,2504
Republic of Malta 0,0731
Kingdom of the Netherlands 5,7170
Republic of Austria 2,7834
Portuguese Republic 2,5092
Republic of Slovenia 0,4276
Slovak Republic 0,8240
Republic of Finland 1,7974
Total 100.0